Харанга - Зүүдэндээ би хайртай
Мичид гялс хийн анивчих
Тэнгэрийн ороноос хайралсан хайр
Хүрээд наддаа ирсэн ч гэлээ
Хүнийх л байж дээ даанч
Хатуу ч гэлээ үнэн л байж дээ
Салхинд саатан исгэрэх
Хорвоод санасан жаргалаа би
Хайгаад хайгаад оллоо ч гэлээ
Хожимдсон байлаа би
Дурлал байлаа жаргал байлаа
Миний хайрын уянгалаг дуунуудын
Эгшиг яруу нь чи минь байлаа
Гунигтайхан ч гээд зүүдэндээ би хайртай
Хичнээн хол ч гээд чамдаа би хайртай
Гандан жаргах хорвоод
Хайраар дутаж үзээгүй ч
Ханхан дүрхэндээ чамайгаа
Хүсээд л байх юмдаа
Дуралсан ч юм уу, хайралсан ч юм уу
Алслан холдох амьдралд
Хугацаа богинохон ирсэн ч би
Хайрлаж энхрийлэх сэтгэл минь
Харин мөнх гэгээтэй
Халуун хайр минь холын хайрт минь
Миний хайрын уянгалаг дуунуудын
Эгшиг яруу нь чи минь байлаа
Гунигтайхан ч гээд зүүдэндээ би хайртай
Хичнээн хол ч гээд чамдаа би хайртай
Saturday, September 1, 2012
Friday, August 10, 2012
Oil Peak and the problems with it.
Peak Oil: The End of the Oil Age
It has taken between 50-300 million years to form, and yet we have managed to burn roughly half of all global oil reserves in merely 125 years or so.
The world now consumes 85 million barrels of oil per day, or 40,000 gallons per second, and demand is growing exponentially.
Oil production in 33 out of 48 out countries has now peaked, including Kuwait, Russia and Mexico. Global oil production is now also approaching an all time peak and can potentially end our Industrial Civilization. The most distinguished and prominent geologists, oil industry experts, energy analysts and organizations all agree that big trouble is brewing.
The world is not running out of oil itself, but rather its ability to produce high-quality cheap and economically extractable oil on demand. After more than fifty years of research and analysis on the subject by the most widely respected & rational scientists, it is now clear that the rate at which world oil producers can extract oil is reaching the maximum level possible. This is what is meant by Peak Oil. With great effort and expenditure, the current level of oil production can possibly be maintained for a few more years, but beyond that oil production must begin a permanent & irreversible decline. The Stone Age did not end because of the lack of stones, and the Oil Age won't end because of lack of oil. The issue is lack of further growth, followed by gradual, then steep decline. Dr King Hubbert correctly predicted peaking of USA oil production in the 1970's on this basis.
It is now widely acknowledged by the world's leading petroleum geologists that more than 95 percent of all recoverable oil has now been found. We therefore know, within a reasonable degree of certainty, the total amount of oil available to us. Any oil well has roughly the same life cycle where the production rate peaks before it goes into terminal decline. This happens when about half of the oil has been recovered from the well. We have consumed approximately half of the world’s total reserve of about 2.5 trillion barrels of conventional oil in the ground when we started drilling the first well at a current rate of over 30 billion a year, meaning the world is nearing its production plateau.
Worldwide discovery of oil peaked in 1964 and has followed a steady decline since. According to industry consultants IHS Energy, 90% of all known reserves are now in production, suggesting that few major discoveries remain to be made. There have been no significant discoveries of new oil since 2002. In 2001 there were 8 large scale discoveries, and in 2002 there were 3 such discoveries. In 2003 there were no large scale discoveries of oil. Given geologists' sophisticated understanding of the characteristics that would indicate a major oil find, is is highly unlikely that any area large enough to be significant has eluded attention and no amount or kind of technology will alter that. Since 1981 we have consumed oil faster than we have found it, and the gap continues to widen. Developing an area such as the Artic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska has a ten year lead time and would ultimately produce well under 1% of what the world currently consumes (IEA).
Oil is now being consumed four times faster than it is being discovered, and the situation is becoming critical.
"The consumption of a finite resource is simply a finite venture and the faster we use the quicker it peaks" (M. Simmons)
Global oil production is rapidly approaching its peak, even if natural gas liquids and expensive, destructive, risky deepwater and polar oil are included.
Recent Warnings:
"Peak oil is now." German Energy Watch Group –2008
"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear..…" U.S. Department of Defense –2008 & 2010.
"A global peak is inevitable. The timing is uncertain, but the window is rapidly narrowing." UK Energy Research Centre -2009
"The next five years will see us face … the oil crunch." UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security –2009
The Saudi Arabia Case
With more than fifty oil-producing countries now in decline, focus on the oil-rich Middle East has sharpened dramatically. Countries of the Middle East have traditionally been able to relieve tight oil markets by increasing production, but, as the this region nears its own oil peak, any relief it can provide is limited and temporary.
Saudi Arabia is a major oil producer with 73% of all incremental world demand being met by this country. The worrying fact is that 90% of their production comes from only 5 mega fields (one is the Ghawar field which is the biggest ever discovered), and are all at risk of unplanned production collapse. In 2004 there were warning signs of production falling into depletion. For years, Aramco, the Saudi national company, use secondary recovery techniques by injecting enormous amounts of seawater (7 million barrels daily) into their biggest field to boost production. These methods have only temporary effects, and lead to accelerated rates of depletion in the future.
Matt Simmons, long time energy analyst who studied energy for 34 years, in his book “Twilight in the Desert” effectively confronts the complacent belief that there are ample oil reserves in Saudi Arabia and has created a compelling case that Saudi Arabia production will soon reach a peak, after which its production will decline and the world will be confronted with a catastrophic oil shortage. The factual basis of the book is over 200 technical papers published over the last 20 years which individually detail problems with particular wells or particular fields, but which collectively demonstrate that the entire Saudi oil system is “old and fraying” with reserves deliberately vastly overestimated.
Geologist Dr Colin Campbell in a 1998 article in Scientific American also details numerous discrepancies about estimates in Middle East reserves. The extent of reserves reported remained amazingly constant from year to year and then jumped dramatically. A similar unexplainable jump occurred in other countries in the Middle East, sometimes even in the total absence of exploration, strongly suggesting that OPEC's reserves are overstated.
Peak Oil Imminent
The only uncertainty about peak oil is the time scale, which is difficult to predict accurately. Over the years, accurate prediction of oil production was confronted by fluctuating ecological, economical, and political factors, which imposed many restrictions on its exploration, transportation, and supply and demand. At the end of 2009, the Kuwait university and the Kuwait Oil company collaborated in a study to predict the peak date using multicylic models, depending on the historical 2 oil production trend and known oil reserves of 47 major oil production countries, to overcome the limitations and restrictions associated with other previous models. Based on this model, world production is estimated to peak in 2014. Other experts, oil companies and analyst firm estimate the peak date between now and around 2020. What's certain is that the global production will go into a permanent decline within our generation.
"One of nature's biggest forces is exponential growth"
(Albert Einstein)
At a current average global consumption growth rate of 2% annually (1995-2005), by 2025 the world will need 50% more oil (120 mbd), and the International Energy Agency (IEA) admits that Saudi will have to double oil production to achieve this, which is not feasible in even the most optimistic scenario. And that's not even taking into account that 80% of the world is only just starting to use oil & gas. In recent years, energy demands from mostly emerging economies have increased dramatically in populous countries as their oil consumption per capita grows. The International Energy Agency estimates that 93% of all incremental demand comes from non-OECD countries. Therefore, in time oil prices will continue to rise.
Based on Simmon’s analysis, sudden and sharp oil production declines could happen at any time. Even under the most optimistic scenario, Saudi Arabia may be able to maintain current rates of production for several years, but will not be able to increase production enough to meet the expected increase in world demand. There is no likely scenario that some new frontier can replace Middle East oil declines.
From Wiki leaks it has emerged that Senior Saudi energy officials have privately warned US and European counterparts that Opec would have an “extremely difficult time” meeting demand and that the reserves of Saudi have been overstated by as much as 40%.
"Even an attempt to get up to 12 mbd would wreak havoc within a decade by causing damage to the oil fields.
-Saudi Aramco official
Exxon Mobil Corporation, one of the world's largest publicly owned petroleum companies, is the most forthright of the major oil companies having had the courage and honesty to quietly publish the declining discovery trend, based on sound industry data with reserve revisions properly backdated. Furthermore, the company is running page-size advertisements in European papers stressing the immense challenges to be faced in meeting future energy demand, hinting that the challenges might not be met despite its considerable expertise. Chevron recently joined their campaign publishing an advertisement in national newspapers stating that the 'Era of Easy Oil is Over' (see here to view full ad).
"Initially it will be denied. There will be much lying and obfuscation. Then prices will rise and demand will fall. The rich will outbid the poor for available supplies."
The fallacy of Alternatives
The public, business leaders and politicians are all under the false assumption that oil depletion is a straightforward engineering problem of exactly the kind that technology and human ingenuity have so successfully solved before. Technology itself has become a kind of supernatural force, although in reality it is just the hardware and programming for running that fuel, and governed by the basic laws of physics and thermodynamics. Much of our existing technology simply won't work without an abundant underlying fossil fuel base. In addition, physicist Jonathan Huebner has concluded in The History of Science and Technology that the rate of innovation in the US peaked in 1873, and the current rate of innovation is about the same as it was in 1600. According to Huebner, by 2024 it will have slumped to the same level as it was in the Dark Ages. Hence, without sufficient innovation and a comfortable surplus of fossil fuels, we may simply lack the tools to move forward.
With this energy base dwindling, there is simply not enough time to replace a fluid so cheap, abundant and versatile. It is rich in energy, easy to use, store, and transport. Nothing has the bang for the buck of oil, and nothing can replace it in time - either separately or in combination. Wind, waves and other renewables are all pretty marginal and also take a lot of energy to construct and require a petroleum platform to work off.
Natural gas is a diminishing resource as well and cannot satisfy the growing demand for energy. US Gas supplies were so low in 2003 after a harsh winter that to preserve life and property supplies were close to being cut off to manufacturers, electric plants and lastly homes.
Ethanol has a net energy value of zero (not accounting for soil and water damage and other costs due to unsustainable agricultural practices) - it is subsidized as a boon to agribusiness and would have a negligible effect (Prindle, ACEEE).
Solar energy produces marginal net energy, but are still decades away at best from being a viable substitute given the recent rate of progress in efficiency and costs (averaging about five percent a year) and is nowhere ready to meet the world's energy needs. More importantly, solar photovoltaic cells (PVC) are built from hydrocarbon feed stocks and therefore require excess resources. It is estimated that a global solar energy system would take a century to build and would consume a major portion of world iron production (Foreign Affairs, Rhodes).
The widespread belief that hydrogen is going to save the day is a good example of how delusional people have become. Hydrogen fuel cells are not an energy source at all, but are more properly termed a form of energy storage. Free hydrogen does not exist on this planet. It requires more energy to break a hydrogen bond than will ever be garnered from that free hydrogen. The current source of hydrogen is natural gas - that is, a hydrocarbon. In the envisioned system of solar PVC & hydrogen fuel cells, every major component of the system, from the PVC to the fuel cells themselves will require hydrocarbon energy and feedstocks. The oil age will never be replaced by a hydrogen fuel-cell economy.
Coal is abundant, but its net energy profile is poor compared to oil and its conversion process to synthetic fuels is very inefficient. Coal would have to be mined at much higher rates to replace declining oil field. In addition, coal production is extremely harmful to the environment. One large coal burning electric plant releases enough radioactive material in a year to build two atomic bombs, apart from emitting more greenhouse gases than any other fuels. Coal is implicated in mercury pollution that causes 60.000 cases of brain damage in newborn children every year in the USA. Resorting to coal would be a very big step backwards and what we may face then may be more like the Dim Ages. More importantly, coal is distributed very unevenly with the top three countries (China, USA, USSR) possessing almost 70% of total. Much of the current oil and gas supply is in low-population countries, such as Saudi Arabia, that cannot possibly use all of the production for themselves. They are hence quite willing, indeed eager, to sell it to other countries. When oil and gas are gone, and only coal remains, and the few (large-population) countries that possess it need all of it for their own populations, it will be interesting to see how much is offered for sale to other countries.
Obtaining usable oil from tar sands requires huge amounts of energy, as it has to be mined and washed with super hot water. From an energy balance, it takes the equivalence of two barrels of oil to produce three, which is still positive but poor in terms of energy economics. In the early days of conventional oil, this ratio used to be one to thirty.
Nuclear power plants are simply too expensive and take ten years to build, relying on a fossil fuel platform for all stages of construction, maintenance, and extracting & processing nuclear fuels. Additionally, uranium is also a rare and finite source with its own production peak. Since 2006, the uranium price has already more than doubled.
Nuclear fusion is the kind of energy that the world needs. However, mastering it has been 25 years away for the past 50 years, and still is...
Fossil fuels allowed us to operate highly complex systems at gigantic scales. Renewables are simply incompatible in this context and the new fuels and technologies required would simply take a lot more time to develop than available and require access to abundant supplies of cheap fossil fuels, putting the industrial adventure out of business.
In an interview with The Times, former Shell CEO Jeroen van der Veer calls for a “reality check” and warns that the world’s energy crisis cannot be solved by renewables. “Contrary to public perceptions, renewable energy is not the silver bullet that will soon solve all our problems. Just when energy demand is surging, many of the world’s conventional oilfields are going into decline. The world is blinding itself to the reality of its energy problems, ignoring the scale of growth in demand from developing countries and placing too much faith in renewable sources of power”.
Alternative energies will never replace fossil fuels at the scale, rate and manner at which the world currently consumes them, and humankind's ingenuity will simply not overcome the upper limits of geology & physics.
Current Global Energy Production: No substitutes can replace fossil fuels at the same scale & rate at which the world currently use them.
Retrieved from HPU.edu Blackboard
It has taken between 50-300 million years to form, and yet we have managed to burn roughly half of all global oil reserves in merely 125 years or so.
The world now consumes 85 million barrels of oil per day, or 40,000 gallons per second, and demand is growing exponentially.
Oil production in 33 out of 48 out countries has now peaked, including Kuwait, Russia and Mexico. Global oil production is now also approaching an all time peak and can potentially end our Industrial Civilization. The most distinguished and prominent geologists, oil industry experts, energy analysts and organizations all agree that big trouble is brewing.
The world is not running out of oil itself, but rather its ability to produce high-quality cheap and economically extractable oil on demand. After more than fifty years of research and analysis on the subject by the most widely respected & rational scientists, it is now clear that the rate at which world oil producers can extract oil is reaching the maximum level possible. This is what is meant by Peak Oil. With great effort and expenditure, the current level of oil production can possibly be maintained for a few more years, but beyond that oil production must begin a permanent & irreversible decline. The Stone Age did not end because of the lack of stones, and the Oil Age won't end because of lack of oil. The issue is lack of further growth, followed by gradual, then steep decline. Dr King Hubbert correctly predicted peaking of USA oil production in the 1970's on this basis.
It is now widely acknowledged by the world's leading petroleum geologists that more than 95 percent of all recoverable oil has now been found. We therefore know, within a reasonable degree of certainty, the total amount of oil available to us. Any oil well has roughly the same life cycle where the production rate peaks before it goes into terminal decline. This happens when about half of the oil has been recovered from the well. We have consumed approximately half of the world’s total reserve of about 2.5 trillion barrels of conventional oil in the ground when we started drilling the first well at a current rate of over 30 billion a year, meaning the world is nearing its production plateau.
Worldwide discovery of oil peaked in 1964 and has followed a steady decline since. According to industry consultants IHS Energy, 90% of all known reserves are now in production, suggesting that few major discoveries remain to be made. There have been no significant discoveries of new oil since 2002. In 2001 there were 8 large scale discoveries, and in 2002 there were 3 such discoveries. In 2003 there were no large scale discoveries of oil. Given geologists' sophisticated understanding of the characteristics that would indicate a major oil find, is is highly unlikely that any area large enough to be significant has eluded attention and no amount or kind of technology will alter that. Since 1981 we have consumed oil faster than we have found it, and the gap continues to widen. Developing an area such as the Artic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska has a ten year lead time and would ultimately produce well under 1% of what the world currently consumes (IEA).
Oil is now being consumed four times faster than it is being discovered, and the situation is becoming critical.
"The consumption of a finite resource is simply a finite venture and the faster we use the quicker it peaks" (M. Simmons)
Global oil production is rapidly approaching its peak, even if natural gas liquids and expensive, destructive, risky deepwater and polar oil are included.
Recent Warnings:
"Peak oil is now." German Energy Watch Group –2008
"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear..…" U.S. Department of Defense –2008 & 2010.
"A global peak is inevitable. The timing is uncertain, but the window is rapidly narrowing." UK Energy Research Centre -2009
"The next five years will see us face … the oil crunch." UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security –2009
The Saudi Arabia Case
With more than fifty oil-producing countries now in decline, focus on the oil-rich Middle East has sharpened dramatically. Countries of the Middle East have traditionally been able to relieve tight oil markets by increasing production, but, as the this region nears its own oil peak, any relief it can provide is limited and temporary.
Saudi Arabia is a major oil producer with 73% of all incremental world demand being met by this country. The worrying fact is that 90% of their production comes from only 5 mega fields (one is the Ghawar field which is the biggest ever discovered), and are all at risk of unplanned production collapse. In 2004 there were warning signs of production falling into depletion. For years, Aramco, the Saudi national company, use secondary recovery techniques by injecting enormous amounts of seawater (7 million barrels daily) into their biggest field to boost production. These methods have only temporary effects, and lead to accelerated rates of depletion in the future.
Matt Simmons, long time energy analyst who studied energy for 34 years, in his book “Twilight in the Desert” effectively confronts the complacent belief that there are ample oil reserves in Saudi Arabia and has created a compelling case that Saudi Arabia production will soon reach a peak, after which its production will decline and the world will be confronted with a catastrophic oil shortage. The factual basis of the book is over 200 technical papers published over the last 20 years which individually detail problems with particular wells or particular fields, but which collectively demonstrate that the entire Saudi oil system is “old and fraying” with reserves deliberately vastly overestimated.
Geologist Dr Colin Campbell in a 1998 article in Scientific American also details numerous discrepancies about estimates in Middle East reserves. The extent of reserves reported remained amazingly constant from year to year and then jumped dramatically. A similar unexplainable jump occurred in other countries in the Middle East, sometimes even in the total absence of exploration, strongly suggesting that OPEC's reserves are overstated.
Peak Oil Imminent
The only uncertainty about peak oil is the time scale, which is difficult to predict accurately. Over the years, accurate prediction of oil production was confronted by fluctuating ecological, economical, and political factors, which imposed many restrictions on its exploration, transportation, and supply and demand. At the end of 2009, the Kuwait university and the Kuwait Oil company collaborated in a study to predict the peak date using multicylic models, depending on the historical 2 oil production trend and known oil reserves of 47 major oil production countries, to overcome the limitations and restrictions associated with other previous models. Based on this model, world production is estimated to peak in 2014. Other experts, oil companies and analyst firm estimate the peak date between now and around 2020. What's certain is that the global production will go into a permanent decline within our generation.
"One of nature's biggest forces is exponential growth"
(Albert Einstein)
At a current average global consumption growth rate of 2% annually (1995-2005), by 2025 the world will need 50% more oil (120 mbd), and the International Energy Agency (IEA) admits that Saudi will have to double oil production to achieve this, which is not feasible in even the most optimistic scenario. And that's not even taking into account that 80% of the world is only just starting to use oil & gas. In recent years, energy demands from mostly emerging economies have increased dramatically in populous countries as their oil consumption per capita grows. The International Energy Agency estimates that 93% of all incremental demand comes from non-OECD countries. Therefore, in time oil prices will continue to rise.
Based on Simmon’s analysis, sudden and sharp oil production declines could happen at any time. Even under the most optimistic scenario, Saudi Arabia may be able to maintain current rates of production for several years, but will not be able to increase production enough to meet the expected increase in world demand. There is no likely scenario that some new frontier can replace Middle East oil declines.
From Wiki leaks it has emerged that Senior Saudi energy officials have privately warned US and European counterparts that Opec would have an “extremely difficult time” meeting demand and that the reserves of Saudi have been overstated by as much as 40%.
"Even an attempt to get up to 12 mbd would wreak havoc within a decade by causing damage to the oil fields.
-Saudi Aramco official
Exxon Mobil Corporation, one of the world's largest publicly owned petroleum companies, is the most forthright of the major oil companies having had the courage and honesty to quietly publish the declining discovery trend, based on sound industry data with reserve revisions properly backdated. Furthermore, the company is running page-size advertisements in European papers stressing the immense challenges to be faced in meeting future energy demand, hinting that the challenges might not be met despite its considerable expertise. Chevron recently joined their campaign publishing an advertisement in national newspapers stating that the 'Era of Easy Oil is Over' (see here to view full ad).
"Initially it will be denied. There will be much lying and obfuscation. Then prices will rise and demand will fall. The rich will outbid the poor for available supplies."
The fallacy of Alternatives
The public, business leaders and politicians are all under the false assumption that oil depletion is a straightforward engineering problem of exactly the kind that technology and human ingenuity have so successfully solved before. Technology itself has become a kind of supernatural force, although in reality it is just the hardware and programming for running that fuel, and governed by the basic laws of physics and thermodynamics. Much of our existing technology simply won't work without an abundant underlying fossil fuel base. In addition, physicist Jonathan Huebner has concluded in The History of Science and Technology that the rate of innovation in the US peaked in 1873, and the current rate of innovation is about the same as it was in 1600. According to Huebner, by 2024 it will have slumped to the same level as it was in the Dark Ages. Hence, without sufficient innovation and a comfortable surplus of fossil fuels, we may simply lack the tools to move forward.
With this energy base dwindling, there is simply not enough time to replace a fluid so cheap, abundant and versatile. It is rich in energy, easy to use, store, and transport. Nothing has the bang for the buck of oil, and nothing can replace it in time - either separately or in combination. Wind, waves and other renewables are all pretty marginal and also take a lot of energy to construct and require a petroleum platform to work off.
Natural gas is a diminishing resource as well and cannot satisfy the growing demand for energy. US Gas supplies were so low in 2003 after a harsh winter that to preserve life and property supplies were close to being cut off to manufacturers, electric plants and lastly homes.
Ethanol has a net energy value of zero (not accounting for soil and water damage and other costs due to unsustainable agricultural practices) - it is subsidized as a boon to agribusiness and would have a negligible effect (Prindle, ACEEE).
Solar energy produces marginal net energy, but are still decades away at best from being a viable substitute given the recent rate of progress in efficiency and costs (averaging about five percent a year) and is nowhere ready to meet the world's energy needs. More importantly, solar photovoltaic cells (PVC) are built from hydrocarbon feed stocks and therefore require excess resources. It is estimated that a global solar energy system would take a century to build and would consume a major portion of world iron production (Foreign Affairs, Rhodes).
The widespread belief that hydrogen is going to save the day is a good example of how delusional people have become. Hydrogen fuel cells are not an energy source at all, but are more properly termed a form of energy storage. Free hydrogen does not exist on this planet. It requires more energy to break a hydrogen bond than will ever be garnered from that free hydrogen. The current source of hydrogen is natural gas - that is, a hydrocarbon. In the envisioned system of solar PVC & hydrogen fuel cells, every major component of the system, from the PVC to the fuel cells themselves will require hydrocarbon energy and feedstocks. The oil age will never be replaced by a hydrogen fuel-cell economy.
Coal is abundant, but its net energy profile is poor compared to oil and its conversion process to synthetic fuels is very inefficient. Coal would have to be mined at much higher rates to replace declining oil field. In addition, coal production is extremely harmful to the environment. One large coal burning electric plant releases enough radioactive material in a year to build two atomic bombs, apart from emitting more greenhouse gases than any other fuels. Coal is implicated in mercury pollution that causes 60.000 cases of brain damage in newborn children every year in the USA. Resorting to coal would be a very big step backwards and what we may face then may be more like the Dim Ages. More importantly, coal is distributed very unevenly with the top three countries (China, USA, USSR) possessing almost 70% of total. Much of the current oil and gas supply is in low-population countries, such as Saudi Arabia, that cannot possibly use all of the production for themselves. They are hence quite willing, indeed eager, to sell it to other countries. When oil and gas are gone, and only coal remains, and the few (large-population) countries that possess it need all of it for their own populations, it will be interesting to see how much is offered for sale to other countries.
Obtaining usable oil from tar sands requires huge amounts of energy, as it has to be mined and washed with super hot water. From an energy balance, it takes the equivalence of two barrels of oil to produce three, which is still positive but poor in terms of energy economics. In the early days of conventional oil, this ratio used to be one to thirty.
Nuclear power plants are simply too expensive and take ten years to build, relying on a fossil fuel platform for all stages of construction, maintenance, and extracting & processing nuclear fuels. Additionally, uranium is also a rare and finite source with its own production peak. Since 2006, the uranium price has already more than doubled.
Nuclear fusion is the kind of energy that the world needs. However, mastering it has been 25 years away for the past 50 years, and still is...
Fossil fuels allowed us to operate highly complex systems at gigantic scales. Renewables are simply incompatible in this context and the new fuels and technologies required would simply take a lot more time to develop than available and require access to abundant supplies of cheap fossil fuels, putting the industrial adventure out of business.
In an interview with The Times, former Shell CEO Jeroen van der Veer calls for a “reality check” and warns that the world’s energy crisis cannot be solved by renewables. “Contrary to public perceptions, renewable energy is not the silver bullet that will soon solve all our problems. Just when energy demand is surging, many of the world’s conventional oilfields are going into decline. The world is blinding itself to the reality of its energy problems, ignoring the scale of growth in demand from developing countries and placing too much faith in renewable sources of power”.
Alternative energies will never replace fossil fuels at the scale, rate and manner at which the world currently consumes them, and humankind's ingenuity will simply not overcome the upper limits of geology & physics.
Current Global Energy Production: No substitutes can replace fossil fuels at the same scale & rate at which the world currently use them.
Retrieved from HPU.edu Blackboard
Sunday, July 8, 2012
Spoiled lazy people
Okay, Im super frustrated right now. I'm just fucking mad upset! Therefore, Im going to vent on my blog here.So if you don't like reading people's venting. Stop reading right now!
Fuck maan, seriously??? I just can't fucking stand people who are so lazy, spoiled and negative. They all the time fucking write negative stuff, talk about their "miserable" life, and just complain overall. God, just do something about your issues. If you are not willing to change your life or work hard toward what you want, then obviously success is not gonna come to you when you are just sitting home on your fucking lazy ass. SeriouslY???? Fuck stop complaining and stop wallowing in self pity when other people's life is so much worser than yours. You know what I think of you now? I think you are stupid spoiled idiot who has nothing else to do except complain and talk shit about other people. So starting from today, I am not going to talk to you or keep in touch with you. I think its better for my nerves and health. Just annoyed the shit out of me. Why people are so negative?? When you have such a good life, you complain about it? Wtf? What about other people? You just don't know how in real life people suffer yet they become stronger, the ones who survived. If you can't be strong, positive and smart, when I am being so nice to you, and you treat me like shit, then finito! I am not going to be nice or kind to you. You will see what kind of a bitch i am. I don't like being associated with weak, lazy, sleazy, bitchy, negative, spoiled, jealous losers! So fuck off! There! Ugh, this has been on my mind for a while now! Feels good to vent. I just wish my bf would get here soon.
Fuck maan, seriously??? I just can't fucking stand people who are so lazy, spoiled and negative. They all the time fucking write negative stuff, talk about their "miserable" life, and just complain overall. God, just do something about your issues. If you are not willing to change your life or work hard toward what you want, then obviously success is not gonna come to you when you are just sitting home on your fucking lazy ass. SeriouslY???? Fuck stop complaining and stop wallowing in self pity when other people's life is so much worser than yours. You know what I think of you now? I think you are stupid spoiled idiot who has nothing else to do except complain and talk shit about other people. So starting from today, I am not going to talk to you or keep in touch with you. I think its better for my nerves and health. Just annoyed the shit out of me. Why people are so negative?? When you have such a good life, you complain about it? Wtf? What about other people? You just don't know how in real life people suffer yet they become stronger, the ones who survived. If you can't be strong, positive and smart, when I am being so nice to you, and you treat me like shit, then finito! I am not going to be nice or kind to you. You will see what kind of a bitch i am. I don't like being associated with weak, lazy, sleazy, bitchy, negative, spoiled, jealous losers! So fuck off! There! Ugh, this has been on my mind for a while now! Feels good to vent. I just wish my bf would get here soon.
Saturday, May 12, 2012
жизнь
Родители растили, любовью одарили,
Совестью наградили, дали знаний в голову.
Мать для меня останется женщиной-эталоном.
Отца, со временем, стал понимать острее я
Поняв как в этом мире мужчиной быть на самом деле.
Детство закончилось, там юность бурная
Сколько кем выпито, сколько кем скурено
Сколько времени и сил оставлено разным дурам
Суки мне больше не нужны, по ним я не тоскую
В твоих глазах я вижу смысл жить,
В твоих глазах увидел, что я не один,
И смыслы все в твоих глазах слились,
И я пришел к тебе, ты моя жизнь.
Скажи "Я люблю жизнь"
Лигалайз.
Совестью наградили, дали знаний в голову.
Мать для меня останется женщиной-эталоном.
Отца, со временем, стал понимать острее я
Поняв как в этом мире мужчиной быть на самом деле.
Детство закончилось, там юность бурная
Сколько кем выпито, сколько кем скурено
Сколько времени и сил оставлено разным дурам
Суки мне больше не нужны, по ним я не тоскую
В твоих глазах я вижу смысл жить,
В твоих глазах увидел, что я не один,
И смыслы все в твоих глазах слились,
И я пришел к тебе, ты моя жизнь.
Скажи "Я люблю жизнь"
Лигалайз.
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
NYC
Well, Lately my life has been extremely busy so i haven't updated my blog thy often but right now i am sitting in Starbucks waiting for my meeting to start from 7.30 pm. Right now its 6.51 pm on a Tuesday evening in New York City. I came to NY to participate in United Nations Student Conference that is being held in Sheraton and Hilton hotels. It started last Sunday which means two days ago but i am exhausted already. I am so tired that I am not even trying to party or go out. We have been assigned to General Assembly 3 rd Committee which is Combating human trafficking, transnational organized crime and the defending the rights of indigenous people. This committee is soo big that it is so hard to ever get done anything. Our group is representing Republic of Congo this year and we are pushing for Congo's resolutions paper on human trafficking. Me an my partner has been working so hard but it seems so hard to get anything done because everybody is negotiating and pushing for their own agenda. Today we had a 2 hour break and we went shopping for some NYC stuff and also went into Zara. I got some stuff for my parents and family and my bf. ;) So i think overall it was a productive day. I sit here and mobile blogging and now I should probably be back to Sheraton since it will start again soon. We will be there until 11 pm in a meeting and then go to a ballroom party smtg to meet our fellow delegates. I will post some pictures below. NY is awesome but I think i like LA or HI better! :))
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Btw I looveee Instagram! Whoever doesnt have one, get one! Its a free appl and you can fix your pics on it! Im absolutely hooked! Follow me on Instagram and lets share pics! 💘🎀
March 2012
Hi everyone! I haven't updated my blog recently. I can't believe its already March 10th. Wooow time really is flying sooo fast. It's crazy! Now it's almost Spring Break which means I have midterms next week. Since its my last semester, I really have to study and study and study. No im serious, no more chillin, partying, or wasting time. Can't have none of that. Let's see what happened recently in my life. Okay, few days ago my friend visited me from LA and stayed with me and my roomies for like 5 days. We had a blast. Partying for straight 3 days, and I swear I felt like I couldn't keep up with her. I think I am getting old. But then again I never partied for straight 3 days. But anyways we had fun but she left, so now I really has to catch up on my studies, otherwise Im screweeeeed. I am also thinking of getting Jeffrey Campbell boots =) sounds nice yeah? Im still deciding tho. And also, my NY trip is finalized and we bought our tickets and booked our hostel. So me and Merita (the blond girl in my earlier pics, if you remember) are definitely going to NY. So excited. We will stay there for 10 days during Spring Break and after Spring for 1 week because the UN Student COnference is happening around that time! I can't wait. Never been to NYC before. I also had a meeting with our school's Alumni Association to raise funds for NYC trip for our club members. Aaand we were successful. Got 10 grand, awesome yeah? Today is Friday here, but I am sitting here home, just took shower and did my mani and blogging. I will upload some pics later for update! Things are going good, I finished one research paper today. It was a comparative research paper Mongolia vs. US! It was pretty hard to write but Im done now! Woohoo! Now its time to sleep for me since I have Saturday morning class. Listen to this track for now! I love the remix of Timati's "Welcome to St. Tropez". I swear I raped the repeat button haha.
Kisses,Dalia
Kisses,Dalia
Friday, February 24, 2012
❤❤❤
Дэлбээлж байгаа цэцгийг дэмий битгий тасдаарай
Дэрвэж яваа охиныг уйлуулж битгий гомдоогоорой
Энхрий цээжийг нь дэрлээд чих тавин чагнаарай
Ээжийн охины зүрх чиний төлөө цохилж байгаа
Аавдаа ч өгөөгүй халамжийг нь асгаж битгий гомдоо
Амсаж байгаа жаргалаа эргүүлээд түүндээ өг
Хардаж чамайг зовоодоггүй ч харамлаж байгаа чамайг
Хань минь чи минийх гээд духан дээр нь зөөлөн үнс, уужирна
Хайраар бялхсан харцыг нь чи л ганцхан мэдэрдэг
Халуун дулаан тэврэлтийг нь чи л ганцхан хүртдэг
Удам залгах үрийг чинь төрүүлж чамд өгөх
Ухаант бүсгүй дэргэд чинь байна инээмсэглэ эр хүн та!
Ene shulgiig internetees avsan. Xenii bichsen shuleg yum bol? Unexeer goy bichsen bna
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Monday February 20, 2012
Its past midnight here. But i wont be able to go to bed unless i finish up reading my Political Philosophy book. I am so tired but the day so far went well i think. In Mongolia today is the eve of Lunar New Year celebration and I'm just feeling miserable right now. I really wish i could spend this day with my family back home and i also miss my mom's food. Next year i think it will be awesome! Mongolian traditional food is soo good. Im getting hungry when i think about it now. Yummy!
Random pics from today. Ill log off now.
Xoxo
Random pics from today. Ill log off now.
Xoxo
Monday, February 20, 2012
Presidents Day Holiday
Today is the President's Day, so that means its a holiday here. We had a long holiday starting from Friday, Sat, Sun and Monday. Tomorrow I have classes so, i shall study more today because I need to catch up with my school work. There is so much I need to do. It's craaazy and Im getting extremely tired of it. I knew that this semester things would be intense but I just didn't know that it would be this hard. With too much load of school work I have also my internship. I work at the office 3 days a week from 9-5pm, so it is really taking up most of my time. I am soo tired of everything but I just really hope that later on I would benefit from it. But right now I am exhausted. Working and studying at the same time is really really hard. I need to concentrate more on my studies. Since its my last semester, I can't screw things up. I have to be more responsible than ever! Okay, I will start writing my research papers now. Hope everyone had a great awesome weekend and Happy Mongolian Lunar New Year! I wish I could celebrate it too. I just hope that working hard will be good for my future. Here is a pic of me behind my laptop cuz I look like hell lol =)
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Random
I was looking through my phone photos and saw so many amazing pictures and places i have been to. I had this phone for a 1.5 years. So i decided to share some of them with you! It never ceases to amaze me how beautiful the world is! Enjoy! :) i will add more when i get the chance. There are so many more pictures on my Mac. 
Path
Recently I've been downloading so many different apps! And I actually really like them! Here is another app i would recommend cuz its so good! For people who don't want to blog but also who wants to journal their life, this app would be awesome! The name is Path and its a smart journal. Try it out guys! And here is also another app that you might like. The name is Sleep
cycle and Its an alarm clock that actually tracks down how much you are sleeping. How long were you in deep sleep etc. Try it out and you eill know what I am talking about!
cycle and Its an alarm clock that actually tracks down how much you are sleeping. How long were you in deep sleep etc. Try it out and you eill know what I am talking about!
Монгол хэл
Би ероосоо монголоор хурдан бичиж чадахгуй юм аа. Яааж хурдан бичдэг болох вэ та минээ? Аргагуй 6 жил бичээгуй болхоор дадлага дутаад байна. Aimar udjiij neg jooxon yum bichsen bnashd. Udku mongol yavxaasaa omno tachignuuldag bolku bol. Neeree Mobile Blog ged App. download xiij avsnaas xoish blogging has become much easier. Sorry I mixed 2 languages here. Don't make a big deal out of it.
Yeah, I would recommend Mobile Blog app. to all bloggers. It's so easy to use.
Ok, I will log off now!
Xoxo
Productive Sunday!
Today i woke up at 10 am and chilled home for a while and went down after that to Starbucks to start studying. Things were going pretty well until it was discovered that somebody stole my roomies wallet. We called the security and the police. We were really upset and obviously after that couldn't concentrate anymore. So I started updating and editing my blog and my other social media accounts. I have been meaning to do this for a loong time yet i could never find time for it. I think overall today was a really productive day! I am still at Starbucks now but soon ill go home. Maybe if im in the mood to study again ill come back later. We are also planning to drink tonight. Well see how that one goes! :) I am very pleased with my blog's layout! :)
Be my Valentine!
This Valentine's Day I was kind of sad cuz me and my bf are far away from each other. Me in Hawaii and him in California isn't making things better. So it got me thinking, couples who are going thru a long distance relationship successfully are the real deal. If your relationship lasts even when you are far away from each other, that means you guys really love each other! Distance really tests the love that you have for another person! And i knoooow long distance relationships suck but after this test, you know you cant fail. Right?
And my amazing boyfriend sent me red roses and chocolates with a really cute card! So that made my day! I really love him! And he is amazing! I am truly blessed! :)
Here is the pic.
And here is the pic of the present he sent me for last years Valentine. So cute!
And my amazing boyfriend sent me red roses and chocolates with a really cute card! So that made my day! I really love him! And he is amazing! I am truly blessed! :)
Here is the pic.
And here is the pic of the present he sent me for last years Valentine. So cute!
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